It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas…which isn’t necessarily a good thing for Microsoft.
It’s official. The summer is gone. While some of us still try to cling to those last few dog days well into the month of September, that nip in the air and the leaves turning golden brown is an undeniable sign that fall is nearly upon us. For the games industry, that means we’re that much closer to the holiday rush. Black Friday is typically the kickoff of the mad-dash towards December 25 th , where sales of every variety begin popping up. Gaming is no exception, as this end-of-year runoff has always been known to generate a huge boom period for console revenue. I can speak from experience, as many of my systems came as Christmas morning surprises during my youth!
So will the 2014 holiday season open a gateway to greener pastures for the struggling Xbox One?
To be honest, I’m not as optimistic as some who believe the Xbox is destined to enter into a golden age come 2015. In fact, if you were to plot its course over the last year, it would look much like a huge zig-zag that veers off in several sporadic tangents. Let’s start with its pre-launch. At E3, Microsoft heads in a new direction with its used games policy. The community is outraged, they back pedal, and here you have your first 180 degree turn. Then they bundle their console with this “must have” motion-sensing technology, thus causing them to jack up the price point by over $100 bucks. Despite many analysts advising them to do so, Microsoft maintains they simply can’t flip a switch and remove such an important core component as the Kinect. Fast-forward six months later (during a period where the Xbox is getting absolutely hammered in both the press and retail market by its Sony counterpart) and suddenly the unflippable switch magically gets flipped. The Kinect is 86ed and the price comes down (funny how that works). Again, another sharp course correction occurs. Now, just as you thought the makers of the Xbox had found confidence enough to allow their hardware to finally brawl with the PlayStation in a fair fight, they pull yet another stunt. It appears that, in conjunction with the release of Forza Horizon 2, The Master Chief Collection and Sunset Overdrive in Europe, Microsoft has instituted gimmick pricing that will ensure the One retails for £20 below the cost of the PS4. This also follows several “ special promotions ” Microsoft has used to incentivize their base here in the US (like offering select Xbox Live members a $50 off coupon towards the purchase of a One).
So how does the PlayStation’s course plot in comparison?
While Microsoft’s trajectory reads like a seismograph during an 8.5 earthquake at this point, Sony’s looks more like a flat-lined heart patient in contrast. Their line is straight and steady. Why? Because the PlayStation 4 seemingly was not suffering from the same identity crisis as the Xbox One during its initial launch. Right from the jump, the PS4 hit the ground running and hasn’t looked back. It’s never wavered and it’s yet to break its stride. It promised to provide killer next-gen power under the hood, a great library of 1 st and 3 rd party titles and innovative new tech that would change the face of gaming. As you read this, can we really argue against any of these points? From a development standpoint, the PS4 hardware is the preferred platform amongst designers, game selection is as robust as ever, and services like PS Now and PlayStation TV continue to push the digital envelope (not to mention the VR breakthroughs of the upcoming Morpheus project). Sony very much represents the tortoise in this race against Microsoft’s hyper-active hare. While the damn rabbit is just all over the place (likely to burn itself out before the finish) the tortious just plugs along at its own pace, ever confident in his direction.
So this brings us back to the holidays, which you’ve no-doubt already felt the presence of at your local Target or Walmart. The problem I see for Microsoft is that, even though they’ve finally lowered the cost of the system to compete head-to-head with Sony, it’s just not enough at this point. Think about it: cutting the bloated price of the Xbox One has by no means resulted in an advantage, but rather acted to just level the playing field a bit. The problem is, even if the One does sell for slightly less in the UK, the PS4 still has a perceived value far beyond that of a simple price tag comparison. Most people will only purchase one next-gen system. That means it’s hard to stack these rivals right next to each other (with the PlayStation bringing such a robust feature-set to the table) without people siding with Team Sony 9 times out of 10 at the register. I hope Microsoft is in store for a little Christmas miracle, but frankly, I think it’s far more likely things will play out like a scene from one those campy holiday slasher flicks.
I can almost see the poster now… Silent Night, Deadly Night 12: The X-mas Xbox Massacre .