After an abrupt announcement of both fraud investigation and bankruptcy, the auction of Index, parent company to Atlus, is now well underway. Yesterday’s reports revealed that multiple companies have already put money on the table, with the final tally reaching well into $200 million. Among approximately 20 companies who weighed in, SEGA stands out as a more prominent contender, as they’ve collaborated with Atlus in the past. A new update (courtesy of Dualshockers ) has confirmed that Index has selected “several candidates” after the preliminary auction from which they will determine a final buyer. Although the names of those involved remain undisclosed, the question of Atlus’ future—which is, to many, the true significance of this whole ordeal—remains heated.
The overarching question here is whether or not Atlus will retain its freedom as a third-party developer. That is to ask, what impact, if any, will factors such as exclusivity agreements have? After all, Atlus has been free to develop and publish as it pleased in the past for whatever platform it desired—and they’ve found resounding success thanks to it. From Etrian Odyssey and Shin Megami Tensei to the more recent Dragon’s Crown , Atlus has shown no intent to confine themselves to the banner of one hardware manufacturer.
Atlus has already stated (and proven) that their release schedule will go unaffected by the auction itself, but the final transfer verdict may very well place limitations on the developer, depending on the nature of the new relationship. The question then becomes, “What sort of outcome can we expect if company X wins the auction?”
Of course, with only SEGA to go on as a proven bidder, we can only speculate on where Atlus will end up as of now. However, guesses from analysts and gamers alike have yielded a colorful spread of what-ifs. In addition to the three hardware titans (Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony), speculations about interest from companies such as Capcom, NIS, and even Namco Bandai run rampant through the gaming community. From this, we can form a few informed inferences on what Atlus may look like in a few months.
Capcom, Nippon Ichi Software, and Namco all represent a similar option: Japanese development. To some extent, this is a promising possibility for Atlus simply because it doesn’t immediately impose any radical change. The underlying risk here is more to genre diversity than to Atlus. Because a majority of Atlus’ franchises are JRPGs, consolidating them under another RPG-focused studio—namely Namco or NIS—poses a risk to the RPG market. If NIS America, for example, were to suddenly own the rights to the Shin Megami Tensei series, they could practically establish a monopoly over the genre. With the successful Tales series already going for them, Namco could easily do the same.
The notion of a company the size of Microsoft or Sony assimilating Atlus is a daunting one as well, if nothing else for the obvious possibility of first-party favoritism. The diverse platform support that helped build Atlus’ success would quickly vanish under the rule of, let’s say, Sony, who would presumably expect their systems to receive majority support. At the same time, Atlus’ role as a publisher would likely be minimized. However, the niche nature of Atlus makes this fairly unlikely.
All things considered, the simplest answer looks to be the most promising: Atlus should belong to Atlus. Their history as a studio attests to their ability to regulate their own practices independently, and it in no way hints at the need for some sort of governing body. For that reason, the ideal outcome seems to be for Atlus to end up with whichever company places independence in the studio’s hands. In any case, as my CheatCC colleague Josh Bruce points out , we clearly haven’t seen the last of Atlus.